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American Programmers and the "Recession"
13 February 2008
Sorry for the exclusive title. This covers not only programmers but the IT sector in general: designers, you too.
This 'recession' of ours is interesting because, as far as I can tell the impact simply has not hit us. In fact, my personal experience tells me the opposite. I know a rascally pack of individuals (a design team) who recently quit their day jobs, and are floating without much problem at all. Strange isn't it that we're supposedly in a recession? But not if you consider some things.
Competition isn't terrible for American programmers
Even with the supposed 'influx of indian computer programmers' that people liked to go and on about, I've never lost a single job to Asia (India and some ex-Soviet bloc). In fact, even given the difference in hourly-cost between Asian and American web developers, competition is still rather strong. I've taken on several freelance clients who had previously hired developers from other countries with weaker currencies. On the flip side, I've also attempted to outsource work to these programmers and its never paid off much compared to doing it myself.
I believe that new interfacing methods--and thus familiarity and capacity in utilizing them--are simply more natively part of American culture. This isn't some racist allegation, its just that the devices we sell here, their deeper integration into our lives, and the peculiar lingo which development clusters adopt are simply more centered around English and America.
Some examples include the Django Framework, named after a foreign albeit Americanized musician, Prototype.js (which attempts to incorporate a more natural English rhythm to common JavaScript techniques), Ruby on Rails which is an attempt in the vein of Prototype but for server-side development and even lends its name to an American contribution to technology (yes, Obviously trains are known worldwide by now, that's not what I am saying. I am simply saying they are at a basic level Americana-centric). Also, all the most active IRC channels and web forums are English.
The Falling Dollar
Another reason that things aren't terrible here is because countries like the UK are finding themselves with plenty of cash to spend in America, and this is translating to an influx of jobs--new web applications are still a good investment. This is very evident in markets like craigslist. So while many Americans are feeling high tide coming, the IT sector--which for the past decade has been synonymous with inflated incomes--is still finding new opportunities. There is currently lots of talk about the Microsoft-Yahoo alleged buy-out, but let's not be so quick to blame this on the recession. Yahoo has been a sick dog for longer than that. What about the tech-darling Google? Its stock dropped 200 bucks! But where are their layoffs if things are so bad? Just compare GOOG with the DOW average [hope that link works] and you'll realize even with their depreciated stock they are still better than the average.
Intra-American Competition
There is also no evidence that a recession has turned up the heat on intra-American competition, either. While one reason is because, as I mentioned above, the pool for demand is growing in areas like the UK, I also suspect that American IT workers are constantly developing new methods and learning to raise their efficiency relative to workers in other sectors. Also, I believe that companies realize that even in times of slow-growth there is a cost-saving advantage to maintaining a budget for IT services. I know my company does.
I won't get too much into my reasons why IT workers have been able to raise their productivity. We've all heard the rant about open source methods. I will simply say that open web forums and IRC channels, as well as a boom in GPL web-frameworks are technically impervious to pitting people against each other within their sector because they are all ultimately in collaboration. In terms of the sharing of methods they are open mediums. Closed, competitive guilds simply can't form in this environment. Workers in this sector enjoy an immediate and costless resource of each other's support.
Comments
1 Eric says...
Interesting Read.
Eric
Posted at 8:26 p.m. on February 13, 2008
2 Don Strawsburg says...
Not that I believe our government has a clue to effective methods of reviving a failing economy, but one has to wonder how so many variables could come together and actually have a positive effect on our lives.
A war that causes excessive spending. Oil prices rising out of control A crash in the housing market A lower value in the US dollar Open Source software bringing cost effective solutions to business
bringing
More US Jobs Reduced Oil consumption and a desire to find alternative sources of energy More affordable homes Cheaper labor force, resulting in Higher demand for cheaper US products and a reduction in the trade deficit. A reliance on a talented work force, and less dependence on conglomerates release and pricing schedules.
Ok, just off the top of my head, and possibly inspired by drinking an excess of Yerba Mate.
Posted at 3:43 p.m. on February 15, 2008
3 Yeago says...
@Don Strawsburg
I think a lot of those topics are over-exaggerated by the media. I'd say things aren't really as bad as they are. We can all still go to Starbucks, right?
Posted at 3:49 p.m. on February 15, 2008
4 fg says...
I tend to agree with your conclusion in spite of your rather questionable cultural arguments. America, today, is THE magnet for everything IT related, but this has a lot to do with easy access to capital. In terms of talent the picture is much less clear. Python originated in Europe, as did Linux and MySQL. Ruby comes from Japan. Half (or so) of all US PhDs are foreign. So, in a way, the US has not just a trade and payments deficit, but also a talent deficit.
Now, don't get me wrong, I think the US has a lot more to offer to immigrants than easy access to capital. But that combination of other capital markets catching up, rigid US immigration laws and a possibly prolonged recession in the US may cause irreversible shifts in that world-wide talent market. Of course, this does not apply to consumer facing web applications as they are indeed very sensitive to cultural subtleties. But that's only a small fraction of the overall IT market.
Posted at 11:21 a.m. on February 16, 2008
5 Yeago says...
@fg: I don't mean to dismiss the talents in other countries--obviously genius isn't somehow more common in America. But the origins of those technologies you mention are one thing, and the extensive development and--in some cases--development of meta-languages upon them is another. I also don't think anyone would argue that the best documentation and most active web-communities centered around those technologies is English and probably America-centric.
But at any rate you bring up many great points for consideration.
Posted at 3:56 p.m. on February 16, 2008
6 Mike says...
Guys,
I hate to burst your bubble, but my entire company's engineering team was laid off and all the software jobs moved overseas. The company was purchased by an Indian company and all the jobs moved to their engineering staff in India. Many of us have yet to land another job. The reality is that even if we're not in a "recession" as defined by the financial gurus, my experience in looking for a job since Aug. has seen the job boards' postings slowing all through the fall and continuing through last week. The hirings have also slowed, jobs put on hold, and hiring managers are being very picky or doing without until the "perfect" candidate becomes available. While there always jobs to be had, your resume needs to include very targeted skills (sometimes even checklist items) to even get past the HR buzzword filters. If you happen to have been managing people for a couple of years, it's even harder. Just a little advice for those managers like me, keep your technical skills sharp and very current because that's what's going to get you back to work faster even in challenging (if not recessionary) markets like the one we're currently in. Just my 2 cents given my current frustration of a 6+ months job search.
Posted at 3:57 p.m. on February 16, 2008
7 Yeago says...
@ Mike: a company having a foreign purchaser is a bit different than jobs simply moving overseas, as there may be other (cost-saving) advantages to moving your staff in that case.
Definitely a tough beat, my friend. I will really have to keep more of an ear out for the situation in other IT markets as my perspective is largely limited to small and medium-scale web development. Thanks for sharing and good luck with that!
Posted at 4:05 p.m. on February 16, 2008
8 Roland says...
I live in Toronto and I'm doing programming on a health and safety system. I've felt no effect by this so-called recession either. In fact, pretty much everyone I know so far has not been effected in my area either, and as you may know, the Canadian economy is strongly tied to the American economy.. About three weeks or so ago, when there was that big new york stock market scare, the TSX dropped at a record level, but then quickly recovered. I wouldn't worry too much, besides thats life. Economy ups and downs, life goes on.
Posted at 10:32 p.m. on February 16, 2008
9 JAlexoid says...
Hmmm... As a lifetime resident of a eastern european, ex-Soviet country, who recently came back from US. I can say that because of the falling $ US is CHEAP! Even for us, "the poor" cousins of western european countries.
Posted at 11:14 a.m. on February 17, 2008
10 AaronZ says...
I believe that there are two things which make up the currently good IT economy here in the States.
First is world-wide talent. There is a huge pool of very good talent that can be found. IT is one of those magical professions that can still provide a 6 figure income, but without years of school. The open nature of the IT community, plus the accessibility of the internet, means that this work has a huge support system. So, there is a deep pool of talent upon which to draw from, worldwide. Most of the best have come to the USA.
The US has the best economic environment for IT Professionals. Lots of liquid cash and opportunity. A great educational infrastructure, and a meritocracy culture which is largely colorblind.
But I don't think, nor do I believe Yeago thinks, there is any ethnic difference in ability. In fact there is no homogeneous IT make up in the US really. I've worked with Indians, Pakistani, Chinese, Eastern European (I can't remember how many 'Stans I know), Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, None of the Aboves over the years. To call out a commonality, they were all working in America for American firms, and they were human beings. That's about all some of my co-workers had in common.
I know the US has been kicked a bit lately, but I love this place for the kind of opportunity it brings to anyone willing to work for it.
Posted at 2:43 a.m. on February 18, 2008
11 Melissa says...
Hi. I was looking into the economy and the effects on freelancers, and found your site. I wondered, since your posting was earlier in the year, if you found the situation to be similar, worsening, or still the opposite of others experiences?... Thanks for your info. above.. very interesting.
Posted at 1:32 a.m. on September 15, 2008
12 Yeago says...
@ Melissa
Hey there. Honestly I don't think anything has changed. Their company is progressing just fine. They've taken on two new people and landed bigger contracts since this was written.
I don't get the impression from them that companies are holding their money from expanding into the web.
Posted at 1:24 p.m. on September 15, 2008